While it’s tough to predict if 2013 will be a drought year, the probability is very high U.S. grain production will be below normal. That’s according to Iowa State University Climatologist Dr. Ellwyn Taylor. He says 2012 was one of the worst droughts in history and the effects generally linger into the following growing season.
And Taylor says that means even with normal rainfall during the 2013 growing season the odds favor below trend line yields. That’s because of below average soil moisture levels.
Taylor says the subsoil has been depleted beyond five feet in much of the corn belt. So it will take at least 10 inches of rain just to recharge the soil profile which is difficult in the winter months.